The headlines may proclaim a ceasefire, but let us be clear: the Israeli-Iranian war is far from over. What we are witnessing is not peace—it is a tactical intermission. The guns may be momentarily silent, but the war remains alive in motive, method, and mindset.
Don’t be fooled. Israel-Iran ceasefire represents tactical intermission, not lasting peace
President Donald Trump’s June 23 announcement of a ‘complete and total ceasefire’ between Israel and Iran brought a welcome pause to twelve days of deadly escalation. Yet his own remarks in the hours that followed, including en route to the NATO summit, betrayed the precarious nature of that agreement—and the volatility of the players involved.
Just before boarding Air Force One, Trump issued a pointed public rebuke: ‘Calm down, Israel!’ He warned Prime Minister Benajamin Netanyahu that any strike against Iran after the ceasefire’s effective hour would constitute a violation. His words reflected not only diplomatic urgency but the fragility of the arrangement he had just announced.
And yet, within hours, both Iran and Israel reportedly launched limited retaliatory actions. Trump, visibly frustrated, criticized both sides for breaking faith: ‘They don’t know what the f*** they’re doing.’ He added: ‘I gotta get Israel to calm down now,’ underscoring the degree to which U.S. pressure—not mutual trust—was the linchpin of the ceasefire’s early survival.
Therein lies the truth: the war has not ended. It has simply shifted forms.
Is the war between Israel and Iran over? Only if we define ‘war’ in the narrowest kinetic terms. But if we understand war as a clash of wills, ideologies, and strategic aims—then this war continues, just under a different banner.
Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes on Israel and U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq—though largely intercepted—served as symbolic warnings. More importantly, Tehran signaled that it retains the capacity to strike deep into the region. That message wasn’t just for Tel Aviv—it was for Washington, Riyadh, and the world.
Behind the scenes, the shadow war continues. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still arms Hezbollah in Lebanon, trains militias in Iraq and Syria, and directs proxy warfare through the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli airstrikes on Damascus and other locations in Syria persist, albeit in a lower-key fashion. Cyber operations, drone surveillance, and intelligence targeting remain on full alert. These are not post-war conditions. These are indicators of an unresolved and evolving conflict.